The very first document we put together when forming OATV contained the following quote from Tim which captures the heart of our investment thesis:

We get most of our good ideas at O’Reilly by watching the ‘alpha geeks’. We look for people who appear to be doing magic, and ask them how they do it. (Remember Arthur C. Clarke’s dictum: “Any sufficiently advanced technology appears to be magic.”) There are always people in any field who are the most clued in to the deep trends, who seem to be playing with all the coolest stuff, and seem to have their finger in everything before most people even know about it.

This concept of watching the alpha geeks was an odd one for most institutional investors to get their arms around. They were accustomed to investment thesis that revolved around well defined markets that could be easily described in broad strokes like enterprise software, mobile, telecom, consumer internet, etc.

Who were these magical alpha geeks and how did we find them?

Though wrapped in a tech vernacular for our own purposes, the idea of watching influencers is not a new one. In fact, it was a 2001 New York Times piece titled Here Come the Alpa Pups that inspired the term alpha geek. In it the author describes the process by which Hasboro targeted potential influencers for a new game they were hoping to launch. Their process was instructive:

Early this year, market researchers headed into playgrounds, skate parks and video arcades throughout Chicago looking for what they called alpha pups. They went up to boys between the ages of 8 and 13 with a question: ”Who’s the coolest kid you know?” When they got a name, they would look for that kid and put the question to him. The goal was to ascend the hierarchy of coolness, asking the question again and again until someone finally answered ”Me.” 

As a firm, we try to stay open to the moves of these alpha geeks without boxing ourselves in too much by over defining the markets they’re going care about. We pay attention to the applications and underlying technologies they play with. We watch what they spend their free time doing. We find smart people then ask them who are the smartest people they know. Then we overlay judgement about where along the adoption curve these people, ideas, technologies and companies lie to determine whether timing is right for investment.

Whether watching the alpha geeks for inspiration or simply seeking them out to influence others the role they play in shaping the arc of mainstream adoption is inescapable. Which is why this beautiful short film on Influencers by Paul Rojanthara and Davis Johnson is required weekend viewing on BRYCE DOT VC.