Disruptive technologies are dismissed as toys because when they are first launched they “undershoot” user needs. The first telephone could only carry voices a mile or two. The leading telco of the time, Western Union, passed on acquiring the phone because they didn’t see how it could possibly be useful to businesses and railroads – their primary customers. What they failed to anticipate was how rapidly telephone technology and infrastructure would improve (technology adoption is usually non-linear due to so-called complementary network effects). The same was true of how mainframe companies viewed the PC (microcomputer), and how modern telecom companies viewed Skype.
As I sift through the pundits and VCs predictions for what will be HOT this year I can’t help having quotes like this resonating in my ears. Yes, there will be successes that ride the waves in gaming and mobile and cleantech, but the really big game changers are going to come out of the blue and leverage each of these in totally unobvious ways and not look at all like “real businesses”.