Deal Fever

The winds of change are sweeping into the start up scene once again. Spring is, er, springing and checkbooks are opening in full bloom. In our world, spring fever is being replace with a new seasonal condition. The companies who struggled to get VCs attention 9 to 12 months ago are closing up rounds. And certain companies are getting a disproportionate amount of interest from would be VC suitors.

Its the latter case that has got me thinking this morning. Note this isn’t a post about a specific investment of ours or a specific VC firm, just an observation, that’s all.

Given the VC landscape there are a lot of options available to entrepreneurs. Angels, Seed funds, Traditional VCs who do a little of the former and Growth Funds. All are in the business of putting others money to work in companies they think can return it many times over. The further removed from what we do as seed investors, the larger the check sizes and the larger the cash on cash return requirements to meet certain acceptable thresholds. I’ve heard many later stage VCs note that there are only 3 to 5 deals a year that matter- meaning only a select few companies each year have the potential to see the very large outcomes that make traditional VC math work. Now, I’m not agreeing with this theory, just giving you a peek into a certain mentality that drives behavior.

Its this sense of scarcity and hyper competitive deal dynamic that is opening my eyes to a condition I’ll call “deal fever”. The lead indicator of deal fever is when the switch flips from genuinely seeking an opportunity to invest in an idea, company or CEO to “not wanting to lose a deal” For anyone who may feel a case of deal fever setting in, please remember that these aren’t deals (one of my least favorite words in our business), these are companies run by real people riding a very real roller coaster of emotions, adrenaline and unmet expectations. They’re looking for long term partners, not the hot hand who is willing to offer bottomless valuation options and 31 flavors of value add.

The only cure for deal fever is to take a chill pill. Be yourself, create more value for the entrepreneur than you try to capture for yourself, find opportunities to make a personal connection with the people behind the heat and give it time. If you’re doing all you can without being obnoxious, things will play out and you’ll be in a good position to invest in a real company and not just “get in on a deal”.